En route to the recession

Some, understandably, have mostly chosen for the meeting of the Council of the European Union (EU) on 8 and 9 December the decision of British Prime Minister David Cameron, to veto a new treaty.
In fact, this choice has masked the failure of the leaders of the euro area to prescribe a remedy for the ills of credible monetary union. They just announced a turn of the screw against the deviant budget. This has perhaps reassured. But it will not work.

As their main decision is to strengthen fiscal discipline, that is to build what German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy called a "union of the Stability and Growth" - but would rather be in my opinion, a "union of instability and stagnation."

Even in the context of an intergovernmental treaty, observes Olli Rehn, European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs, this improved discipline could probably be implemented through the European institutions.

What are the main provisions of the Brussels agreement?

First, as stated by the heads of government of the euro area, "the government budgets are in balance or in surplus, this principle is considered met if, in general, the structural deficit year does not exceed 0.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) nominal. "

Second: "This rule will be introduced in national legal systems of member states (...) and will provide an automatic correction mechanism that will be triggered if a discrepancy."

We can already objected to these measures that are so severe that their application is unlikely. The Council underlines that indeed "measures and sanctions, proposed or recommended by the Commission, be adopted, unless the (country) in the euro area otherwise require a qualified majority."

A shot in the foot

So that, in general, no one is deliberately trying to shoot themselves in the foot. But imagine that this is the case. This would mean that from uncertain estimates of structural deficits, the Commission (composed of unelected bureaucrats) may impose sanctions on elected governments even when they are subjected to high pressures. What will the Commission if they refuse to bend? She will take control? The answer is yes. And this is a constitutional monstrosity.

And, as said Kevin O'Rourke, University of Oxford, is an economic monstrosity.

To show this, I will incorporate the analysis of balance of payments of balances to the private and public financial members of the euro area. Recall that by definition the sum of these balances must equal zero. But what is revealing is how they add up.

We know that before the crisis, fiscal imbalances were modest while those accounts were enormous. In some countries - notably Germany and the Netherlands - the excess private funds were collected by the financial system to finance private deficits in other countries - Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain .

When the crisis erupted, these flows are interrupted. The deficits of the private sectors have collapsed (most turning into surpluses) as explosions while budget deficits. Today hammers Germany, they must be resolved.

By definition, the sum of current account deficits and private deficits must also approach zero. The private sectors of capital-importing countries have previously turned to surplus for good reason: they try to reduce their debt, partly because their assets lose value. As the external deficit should it fall. This can happen for good or bad way.

The right way would be to increase the production of exportables and import substitutes, the bad would be to go through a deepening recession. The proper way would require a sharp increase in imports from the center of the euro area, or a better competitiveness of the area as a whole.

But given the predictable levels of demand and activity, there is unlikely to see the realization of one or the other. Remains the wrong way: strong recessions in which the government reduced its deficit by increasing deflation of the private sector.

In short, it is very difficult to eliminate budget deficits in countries with structural capital-importing without prolonged recessions or greater external competitiveness.

However, it is relative, so a better performance of foreign countries "weak" of the monetary union implies a deterioration of the capital-exporting countries of the euro area, an improvement of the area as a whole.

THE EURO AREA A MEGA-Germany

The first solution implies that Germany will do a lot less "German" and the second, that the euro area became a mega-Germany. Who can believe now that either is plausible?

The result remains by far the most likely, this orgy of fiscal austerity announced: recessions lasting structural in vulnerable countries.

To use language brutal, the single currency will become synonymous with lower salaries, debt deflation and prolonged economic downturn. Is this viable, regardless, moreover, the cost of a bursting of the euro area?

Instead, it persists in a pact of stability and growth failure is predictable and repeated (this column is published exclusively in partnership with the "Financial Times". © "FT". Translated by Gilles Berton).

 

The Swedish automaker Saab files for bankruptcy

The Swedish car manufacturer Saab has filed for bankruptcy Monday, December 19, said a local court to AFP, concluding two years of efforts to save the brand. "They [the officials] were there this morning [Monday] and filed papers asking to be declared bankrupt," said a clerk, adding that the court was considering the request Vänersborg.
A news release stated that three of the leading companies of the group Saab were declared bankrupt: Saab Automobile Aktiebolag, Saab Automobile AB and Saab Automobile Tools Powertrain.
The charismatic CEO of Swedish automobile (Swan, the Dutch owner of Saab), Victor Muller, was previously expected in court Monday. A hearing was in fact scheduled to decide whether the procedure for protection of three months in which Saab had been placed while the group was trying to negotiate a deal to save himself was to be lifted or extended.

NO SALES TO CHINESE COMPANIES

Muller has struggled to find a deal to save Saab from bankruptcy, primarily from two Chinese groups, the manufacturer and distributor Youngman Pang Da. But General Motors, Saab's former owner, has repeatedly said he would oppose the necessary transfer of technology patents it holds even for Chinese companies. This weekend again, GM has renewed its opposition to any agreement with a Chinese suitor, a position regarded as sounding the death knell for Saab.


Attempts to sell Saab to Chinese partners were seen as the last chance of the Swedish manufacturer, already on the verge of bankruptcy when GM had sold to Swedish Automobile - called Spyker at the time - in early 2010 for $ 400 million.

Since then, Saab was forced to halt production in April when suppliers have stopped deliveries because of mountains of unpaid bills. Saab employs about 3,700 people, who are still waiting for their wages in November

DSK, pessimistic about the eurozone, is in Beijing's return to public life

Former IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn made, Monday, December 19 in Beijing, his return to public life in an economic forum in which he compared to the euro area "on the raft to sink" , refusing to comment on his own disappointments. After more than seven months of turbulence personal DSK has chosen an economic conference in Beijing to regain its status as a specialist in macroeconomics, with its experience at the head of the IMF.
Foreign journalists who asked him personal questions about his judicial news on his mood or his choice of China to return to the front of the stage, he has consistently opposed the same answer: "No comment."

On a learned expert above the fray, he distributed good and bad points. "We see the European countries without a plan [rescue] to another, from a peak of last resort to another, again without admitting losses, still without allowing a resumption of growth and still failing to restore confidence, "said Strauss-Kahn.

EURO A "VERY VERY VULNERABLE"

Invited by the group NetEase, one of the giants of the Internet in China, DSK gave a speech in English forty-five minutes, in which he was highly critical of the rescue measures taken in Brussels. He was, moreover, rather tender with his Chinese hosts. He then answered questions from Internet users sent through a moderator of the forum.

"With the recent storm, the raft seems to be strong enough, he said, speaking of the eurozone. The fact that the euro is still in the middle of the river and that the union budget is not completed on makes it very very vulnerable, and the raft seems about to sink. (...) I am not persuaded that [French President] Sarkozy and [German Chancellor] Angela Merkel will understand each other and c ' is probably one of the reasons why the European system has problems ahead, "he said.

He believed, however, that the Chinese government was "particularly well drawn out of the game" during the 2008-2009 crisis.

The New York Stock Exchange closed on Wednesday with a slight increase, given the high hopes regarding the EU summit

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.38%, while Standard & Poor's (S & P) 500 rose 0.2%, while the Nasdaq market finished firm, with a minus 0.01%.

 

 Shares on Wall Street have failed as the three consecutive meetings of growth but a relatively low turnover.

 

 The main topic of discussion at the summit Thursday and Friday in Brussels will be, most likely, Franco-German proposal to introduce the EU Treaty tighter control of national budgets and sanctions for governments that violate EU rules.

 

 Financial and commodity markets evolve for several months in connection with the developments in the euro area will be more volatile during the summit, traders trying to position themselves ahead of events - be credible and decisive conclusion of a settlement agreement crisis is worsening turmoil in the event of a failure of politicians to reach a consensus.

 

 Financial shares rose strongly on Wednesday in New York, because of hopes that resolving the crisis in the euro area will reduce tensions in the banking system. Titles JPMorgan Chase rose 2.3% and the S & P financial sector closed up 1.2%.

 

 Investors are cautious, because the memory of previous EU summit where EU leaders failed to agree on decisive action, while solving the debt crisis of the state was the main issue on the agenda. Also, market confidence was tempered by comments from a German official quoted by Reuters, which appeared pessimistic privniţa summit because "many players still did not understand how serious the situation."

 

Standard & Poor’s: The Eu Funds Will Bear The Consequences Of The Eurozone Public Debt Crisis

 

The financial evaluation company Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has placed under surveillance the rating granted to the European Union, “AAA”, which is the best there is.

 

S&P, who is granting this rating to the European Union since 1976, has explained that the EU funds will bear the consequences of the Eurozone public debt crisis.

 

This warning came two days after the warning launched by the 15 Eurozone member states, 6 of which having the “AAA” rating. On Monday, S&P has also placed under surveillance the rating of these countries, menrionning that there are 50% chances that it will be reduced in the following three months.

On Tuesday, it was the European Financial Stability Fund’s turn (EFSF), also rated with “AAA”.

 

“The placement under surveillance of the EU is how we express our concern (…) in the context of what we percieve as an aggravation of the political, financial and monetary issues of the Eurozone”, wrote the S&P officials.

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